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THE FINANCIAL JOURNAL GLOBAL

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THE FINANCIAL JOURNAL GLOBAL

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THE FINANCIAL JOURNAL GLOBAL

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Buitenlandse beïnvloeding bestrijden door samenwerking overheden, media en bedrijfsleven

Sociale mediaplatforms merken artikelen aan als nepnieuws, een EU-taskforce spoort desinformatie door pro-Kremlin media op en weerlegt deze, de Europese Commissie gaat journalisten en experts werven voor een ‘high level group fake news’, en met de NAVO wordt de samenwerking tegen desinformatie geïntensiveerd. Het kabinet zoekt de samenwerking op om onze democratie te beschermen tegen de heimelijke beïnvloeding door statelijke actoren, in het bijzonder door het verspreiden van desinformatie. Dat schrijft minister Ollongren van Binnenlandse Zaken en Koninkrijksrelaties aan de Tweede Kamer.

Op 21 maart 2018 zijn de gemeenteraadsverkiezingen en het raadgevend referendum over de Wiv. Kiezers moeten voorzien worden van juiste en volledige informatie. Mede daarom is het van essentieel belang dat de publieke opinie niet beïnvloed wordt door desinformatie van statelijke actoren. In dat kader sprak minister Ollongren onlangs met vertegenwoordigers van Facebook, Twitter, Google en Microsoft over de maatregelen die genomen kunnen worden om de verspreiding van desinformatie tegen te gaan. Zij sprak over mogelijke maatregelen en reeds genomen stappen. Zo werken Facebook, NU.nl en de Universiteit Leiden samen in een speciaal dashboard waarin artikelen te zien zijn die door Facebookgebruikers zijn aangemerkt als nepnieuws. Ollongren zal de gesprekken de komende periode voortzetten om tot nadere stappen te komen. Ook vinden er in januari gesprekken plaats met mediapartijen.

Daarnaast is minister Ollongren in Straatsburg geweest om te praten over de Europese aanpak van desinformatie. Nederland zal zich inzetten voor de versterking van de ‘East StratCom Taskforce’ die desinformatie door pro-Kremlin media identificeert, benoemt en feitelijk weerlegt. Daarnaast zijn door het ministerie van Onderwijs, Cultuur en Wetenschap kandidaten benaderd voor de ‘high level group fake news’ die de Europese Commissie gaat oprichten. Hierin zullen journalisten, wetenschappers en experts zich buigen over het fenomeen nepnieuws en aanbevelingen doen voor een gezamenlijke aanpak. Tevens start de Europese Commissie een publieke consultatie waarin het publiek wordt gevraagd informatie en ervaringen over nepnieuws te delen. Ook pleit Nederland voor een intensievere samenwerking tussen de EU en de NAVO op dit thema.

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CBS: Inkomsten in de landbouw gestegen

De inkomsten in de landbouw per arbeidsjaar zijn in 2017 met ruim 20 procent gestegen ten opzichte van een jaar eerder. Vooral in de veehouderij stegen de inkomsten. Het inkomensniveau van de gehele landbouw kwam in 2017 voor het eerst in twintig jaar boven dat van 1995 uit. Toch steeg de productie de laatste twintig jaar sneller dan de inkomsten.

De inkomsten per arbeidsjaar in de landbouw stegen in 2017 met 22,9 procent. Wel staan deze inkomsten de laatste twintig jaar onder druk. Dat is mede het gevolg van een minder gunstige prijsontwikkeling van landbouwproducten, de toename van het aanbod op de wereldmarkt en de hogere kosten van onder meer diervoeders en aardgas.

Tussen 1995 en 2017 steeg de productie met 26 procent, terwijl de inkomsten met een stijging van 10 procent achterbleven.

Energiekosten hoger, gewasbescherming en kunstmest goedkoper

Het volume van de landbouwproductie groeide in 2017 met 0,5 procent. Dit kwam vooral door de hogere afzet van akkerbouwproducten, mede door de afschaffing van het suikerquotum. Vooral door de gemiddeld hogere afzetprijzen lag de productiewaarde in de landbouw 7,7 procent hoger dan in 2016. Door de toename van de productiewaarde stegen de inkomsten fors. Dat kwam ook doordat de waarde van het verbruik in dezelfde periode met 3 procent minder hard steeg.

Door een stijging van de aardgasprijzen lagen de energiekosten in de landbouw in 2017 ruim 10 procent hoger dan in 2016. Ook de prijzen van diervoeders waren dit jaar hoger vergeleken met een jaar eerder. Gewasbeschermingsmiddelen en kunstmeststoffen daalden juist het laatste jaar in prijs.

Melkprijs fors hoger

De waarde van de dierlijke productie steeg in 2017, na een lichte daling een jaar eerder. Het productievolume nam dit jaar weliswaar met bijna 2 procent af, maar de gemiddelde afzetprijs steeg met 16 procent vergeleken met 2016. Dit komt vooral doordat de melkprijs met 25 procent steeg. In 2016 was het prijsniveau laag door het grote aanbod van melk vanwege de afschaffing van het melkquotum op 1 april 2015.

Evenals het jaar ervoor werden varkens in 2017 met meer dan 10 procent flink duurder mede door de aanhoudende vraag naar varkensvlees.

Consumptie-eieren duurder, afzet daalt

De afzet van consumptie-eieren daalde met 7,5 procent, als gevolg van de fipronilcrisis die in het derde kwartaal van 2017 uitbrak. Een aantal leghenbedrijven kreeg een productieblokkade opgelegd en eieren werden vernietigd. Volgens de berekeningen van Wageningen Economic Research ligt de totale directe schade bij de getroffen leghenhouders tussen de 35 en 45 miljoen euro. De bedrijven die buiten schot bleven zagen hun inkomsten wel stijgen door de hogere afzetprijzen. De prijs van consumptie-eieren steeg in 2017 met bijna 18 procent vergeleken met een jaar eerder.

De productie van consumptie-eieren is goed voor 6 procent van de productiewaarde van de dierlijke sector.

Veel meer suikerbieten

De ontwikkeling van de plantaardige productie in Nederland wordt sterk beïnvloed door die van de grootste sector, planten en bloemen. De productiewaarde hiervan is goed voor bijna de helft van de productiewaarde van de totale plantaardige sector. De productiewaarde van planten en bloemen nam in 2017 met bijna 5 procent toe. Dit is volledig toe te schrijven aan de stijging van de prijzen.

Akkerbouwers hadden in 2017 een positief jaar. De prijs van graan lag 2 procent hoger en er werd bijna 6 procent meer geoogst dan in 2016. De prijzen van groenten lagen evenals vorig jaar ongeveer 7 procent onder het niveau van het voorafgaande jaar. Aardappelen daalden ook in prijs, maar fruit werd wel flink duurder mede doordat een flink deel van de oogst verloren ging door vorst tijdens de bloei.

Vergeleken met een jaar eerder nam de oogst van suikerbieten in 2017 met bijna 40 procent toe. De suikerbietenoogst van 2016 was de laatste die onder het suikerregime van de EU geteeld en afgezet werd. In 2017 werd het suikerquotum afgeschaft en kon in de EU onbeperkt suiker worden geproduceerd. De Nederlandse productie breidde uit, waardoor de suikerbietenprijs daalde.

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Hershey Enters Into Agreement To Acquire Amplify Snack Brands

The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY) (“Hershey”) and Amplify Snack Brands, Inc. (NYSE:BETR) (“Amplify”) today announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Hershey will acquire all outstanding shares of Amplify for $12.00 per share in cash.

“The acquisition of Amplify and its product portfolio is an important step in our journey to becoming an innovative snacking powerhouse as together it will enable us to bring scale and category management capabilities to a key sub-segment of the warehouse snack aisle,” said Michele Buck, The Hershey Company President and Chief Executive Officer. “Hershey’s snack mix and meat snacks products, combined with Amplify’s Skinny Pop, Tyrrells, Oatmega, Paqui and other international brands, will allow us to capture more consumer snacking occasions by creating a broader portfolio of brands.”  

“Since Amplify’s inception in 2014, our company’s goal has been to bring transparency to our products, and clean ingredients and great tasting snacks to consumers,” said Tom Ennis, Amplify Snack Brands, Inc. President and Chief Executive Officer. “This transaction is a continuation of our mission as Hershey also believes in bringing to consumers great-tasting snacks made with the best ingredients possible. Hershey is a great cultural partner for Amplify and I’m excited for our team who will have access to Hershey’s marketing and go-to-market resources to take our brands to the next level.”

This strategic acquisition is expected to be accretive to Hershey’s financial targets given the growth trajectory and margin structure of Amplify’s key products. Amplify’s brands compete in many attractive food categories that are capitalizing on fast-growing trends in snacking with a focus on better-for-you products that deliver clean, simple and transparent ingredients as well as unique flavors and forms. Additionally, this combination brings customers a known brand building partner that invests in category management solutions to drive higher levels of conversion and velocity at retail.

Under the terms of the agreement between Hershey and Amplify, Hershey has agreed to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Amplify Snack Brands, Inc. for $12.00 per share, in a transaction structured as a tender offer followed by a merger, valued at approximately $1.6 billion, including net debt and including a make-whole payment of $76 million related to the Tax Receivable Agreement (“TRA”). Based on previously announced guidance, this represents a multiple of approximately 14.8-times 2017 Adjusted EBITDA including identified annual run-rate synergies of approximately $20 million expected to be generated over the next two years from cost savings and portfolio optimization. The transaction will be funded with cash on hand and new debt and is not expected to impact Hershey’s current ratings. Hershey expects the transaction to be accretive to adjusted earnings per share-diluted, including transaction related non-cash amortization, in the first-year post closing with accretion increasing in year two. Adjusted earnings per share-diluted accretion in both years is substantially higher when excluding transaction related amortization. The acquisition is not expected to affect the previously announced full year 2017 outlooks provided in Hershey’s and Amplify’s third quarter earnings release and conference calls.

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Total Launches Large-Scale Development of the Giant Libra Field

Total announces that it has taken the investment decision for the first large-scale development phase of the Libra project, located deep offshore, 180 kilometers off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, in the pre-salt area of the Santos Basin in Brazil.

This phase, consisting of a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) unit with a production capacity of 150,000 barrels of oil per day and 17 wells, will be deployed in the Northwestern part of the block.

“The decision to launch the large-scale development of the Libra field is a major step for Total in Brazil. We have worked with Petrobras, the operator, and our partners to secure technical costs below 20 dollars per barrel. This proves that we are capable of developing competitive deep offshore projects”, declared Arnaud Breuillac, President Exploration & Production of Total. “Following startup of the Early Production System in November, this investment decision further strengthens our portfolio of projects under construction and feeds our production growth post-2020.”

First oil started flowing from the Libra field in November with the start-up of the Pioneiro de Libra, a 50,000-barrel-per-day FPSO early production phase to further appraise the field and generate early revenue. As the next step in the field development, the new “Mero 1” FPSO is expected to come on stream in 2021. In the coming years, this development will continue with the addition of at least three other FPSO’s to fully exploit the potential of the field, with a production that should reach more than 600,000 barrels per day.

The Libra Consortium is led by Petrobras (40%) in partnership with Total (20%), Shell (20%), CNOOC Limited (10%) and CNPC (10%). Pré-Sal Petróleo (PPSA) manages the Libra Production Sharing Contract.

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CBI: UK Manufacturing order books were close to a 30 year high in the three months to December

In the survey of 371 manufacturers, strong overall order books were driven by Motor Vehicles and Transport Equipment, and Mechanical Engineering sectors, although the strength was broad-based with 14 out of 17 sub-sectors reporting that order books were above normal. Export order books weakened slightly compared with November’s record levels, but remained strong.

Output growth was steady at a brisk pace in the three months to December, at a rate that was far above the long-run average.

However, respondents still expect output growth to moderate over the next quarter.

Manufacturers expect output prices to rise at the fastest rate since June in the quarter ahead, while stock adequacy deteriorated to below its long-run average.

Key findings:

28% of manufacturers reported total order books to be above normal, and 11% said they were below normal, giving a balance of +17% (joint highest with last month and August 1988)

28% of firms said their export order books were above normal, and 12% said they were below normal, giving a balance of +16% well above the long-run average of -18%

42% of businesses said the volume of output over the past three months was up, and 11% said it was down, giving a rounded balance of +30% above the long-run average of +4%

Manufacturers expect output growth to slow in the coming quarter, with 26% predicting volumes to increase, and 13% expecting a decline, giving a balance of +13%

29% of companies expect average selling prices to increase in the coming three months, with 6% predicting a decline, giving a balance of +23%

7% of firms said their present stocks of finished goods are more than adequate, whilst 10% said they were less than adequate, giving a balance of -3%.

Anna Leach, CBI Head of Economic Intelligence, said:

“As we head towards the end of 2017, UK manufacturers’ total order books remain at a near 30 high, with export order books remaining at their strongest since the mid-1990s.

“While the lower level of sterling continues to support exporters, cost pressures remain intense. Businesses will expect to see the Government’s Industrial Strategy make rapid progress next year to support manufacturing and the wider economy in every corner of the UK.”

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European Commission opens in-depth investigation into the Netherlands' tax treatment of Inter IKEA

The European Commission has opened an in-depth investigation into the Netherlands' tax treatment of Inter IKEA, one of the two groups operating the IKEA business.

The Commission has concerns that two Dutch tax rulings may have allowed Inter IKEA to pay less tax and given them an unfair advantage over other companies, in breach of EU State aid rules.

Commissioner Margrethe Vestager in charge of competition policy said: "All companies, big or small, multinational or not, should pay their fair share of tax. Member States cannot let selected companies pay less tax by allowing them to artificially shift their profits elsewhere. We will now carefully investigate the Netherlands' tax treatment of Inter IKEA."

In the early 1980s, the IKEA business model changed into a franchising model. Since then, it has been the Inter IKEA group that operates the franchise business of IKEA, using the "IKEA franchise concept". What this means more concretely is that Inter IKEA does not own the IKEA shops. All IKEA shops worldwide pay a franchise fee of 3% of their turnover to Inter IKEA Systems, a subsidiary of Inter IKEA group in the Netherlands. In return, the IKEA shops are entitled to use inter alia the IKEA trademark, and receive know-how to operate andexploit the IKEA franchise concept.

Thus, Inter IKEA Systems in the Netherlands records all revenue from IKEA franchise fees worldwide collected from the IKEA shops. The Commission's investigation concerns the tax treatment of Inter IKEA Systems in the Netherlands since 2006. Our preliminary inquiries indicate that two tax rulings, granted by the Dutch tax authorities in 2006 and 2011, have significantly reduced Inter IKEA Systems' taxable profits in the Netherlands.

The Commission has concerns that the two tax rulings may have given Inter IKEA Systems an unfair advantage compared to other companies subject to the same national taxation rules in the Netherlands. This would breach EU State aid rules.

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Euro area job vacancy rate at 1.9%

EU28 rate at 2.0%

The job vacancy rate in the euro area (EA19) was 1.9% in the third quarter of 2017, stable compared with the previous quarter and up from 1.6% in the third quarter of 2016, according to figures published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the EU28, the job vacancy rate was 2.0% in the third quarter of 2017, stable compared with the previous quarter and up from 1.7% in the third quarter of 2016.

In the euro area, the job vacancy rate in the third quarter of 2017 was 1.6% in industry and construction, and 2.2% in services. In the EU28, the rate was 1.7% in industry and construction, and 2.3% in services.

Member States

Among the Member States for which comparable data are available (see country notes), the highest job vacancy rates in the third quarter of 2017 were recorded in the Czech Republic (4.1%), Belgium (3.6%), Germany (2.7%), Austria and the United Kingdom (both 2.6%), the Netherlands (2.5%) and Hungary (2.4%). In contrast, the lowest rates were observed in Greece (0.5%), Bulgaria and Spain (both 0.8%) as well as Portugal (0.9%).

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year and among the Member States for which data are comparable over time (see country notes), the job vacancy rate in the third quarter of 2017 rose in twenty-two Member States, remained stable in two and fell in Greece (-0.3 percentage points – pp), Romania (-0.2 pp) and Cyprus (-0.1 pp).

The largest increases were registered in the Czech Republic (+1.0 pp), Belgium and Austria (both +0.7 pp), Slovenia (+0.6 pp) and the Netherlands (+0.5 pp).

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Annual inflation up to 1.5% in the euro area

Up to 1.8% in the EU

Euro area annual inflation was 1.5% in November 2017, up from 1.4% in October. In November 2016, the rate was 0.6%. European Union annual inflation was 1.8% in November 2017, up from 1.7% in October. A year earlier the rate was 0.6%. These figures come from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

The lowest annual rates were registered in Cyprus (0.2%), Ireland (0.5%) and Finland (0.9%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Estonia (4.5%), Lithuania (4.2%) and the United Kingdom (3.1%).  Compared with October 2017, annual inflation fell in four Member States, remained stable in nine and rose in fifteen.

The largest upward impacts to the euro area annual inflation came from fuels for transport (+0.21 percentage points), heating oil (+0.07 pp) and milk, cheese & eggs (+0.05 pp), while telecommunication (-0.11 pp), garments (-0.07 pp) and social protection (-0.04 pp) had the biggest downward impacts.

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IEA: Coal demand to remain flat to 2022, resulting in a decade of stagnation

Global demand for coal should remain nearly flat between 2017 and 2022, resulting in a decade of stagnation for coal consumption, according to the International Energy Agency’s annual coal market report.

Global coal consumption fell 1.9% to 5,357 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) last year, the second year of decline, because of lower gas prices, a surge in renewables and improvements in energy efficiency, according to Coal 2017. Coal demand is down 4.2% over the last two years, nearly matching the two-year decline in the early 1990s, which remains the biggest recorded drop since the IEA started compiling statistics more than 40 years ago.

By 2022, global coal demand is expected to reach 5,530 Mtce, the same as the average of the last five-year period, and meaning that coal use will have had a decade-long period of stagnation.

The share of coal in the global energy mix is forecast to decline to 26% in 2022, from 27% in 2016 because of sluggish demand compared with other fuels. Although coal-fired power generation increases by 1.2% per year through 2016-22, its share of the power mix falls to just below 36% by 2022, which would be the lowest level since IEA statistics began.

“The energy system is evolving at a rapid pace all around us, with a more diversifying fuel mix, and the cost of technologies going down,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the International Energy Agency’s director for energy markets and security. “But while everything else is changing, global coal demand remains the same.”

Coal demand dropped in China, the United States and the European Union in 2016, but increased in India and across many parts of Southeast Asia, and shows no signs of slowing down. For instance, despite the rapid growth in renewables, Indian coal-fired power generation is expected to grow almost 4% a year through 2022.

While India will be increasingly important to global coal markets, China will remain the key driver. The potential for coal demand growth in China is limited, but the country’s supply-side reforms will be critical factors for coal prices in the coming years. Meanwhile, the European Union, accounting today for just 6% of global demand, is set to become an increasingly marginal player.

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easyJet can confirm that it has acquired part of Air Berlin's operations at Berlin Tegel Airport.

The acquisition will result in easyJet operating 25 aircraft from Berlin Tegel Airport. The agreement includes easyJet leasing former Air Berlin aircraft, taking over other assets including slots, and offering employment to former Air Berlin flying crew. 

Johan Lundgren, CEO of easyJet, commented:

"We are really pleased that we have reached this milestone.

"easyJet looks forward to building on the presence we already have in Berlin to bring more choice and lower fares to consumers and support more economic growth in the states of both Berlin and Brandenburg.

"This move is consistent with easyJet's strategy of purposeful investment in strong number one positions in Europe's leading airports. As a result of our acquisition, easyJet will operate the leading short haul network at Tegel connecting passengers to and from destinations across Germany and the rest of Europe. This is in addition to easyJet's existing base at Berlin Schönefeld and means that easyJet will be the leading airline to and from Berlin."

Citigroup Global Markets Limited acted as financial adviser and Clifford Chance LLP as legal advisor to easyJet on the transaction.

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CIMIC’S CPB CONTRACTORS WINS $312M METRO TUNNEL RAIL WORKS

CIMIC Group company, CPB Contractors, as part of the Rail Systems Alliance (RSA), has been awarded works by the Victorian Government in support of the $11 billion Metro Tunnel Project, the state’s biggest ever investment in public transport.

CPB Contractors (as principal contractor) and Bombardier Transportation are partners in the RSA, with the Melbourne Metro Rail Authority (MMRA) and Metro Trains Melbourne (MTM).

The $1.1 billion design and construct contract will generate revenue of approximately $312 million to CPB Contractors.

Construction as part of the RSA is expected to commence in 2018 and be completed by 2026.

CIMIC Group Chief Executive Officer Michael Wright said: “With a strong history of delivering major rail infrastructure in Australia, CIMIC Group has brought together a team with extensive local knowledge and international experience to ensure the project’s objectives are realised.”

CPB Contractors Managing Director Juan Santamaria said: “We are focused on delivering next-generation rail network solutions that safely and seamlessly interconnect with existing infrastructure to create a high capacity, integrated rail system.”

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Wijziging NVWA-tarieven per 1 januari 2018

Warenautoriteit (NVWA) bij bedrijven in rekening brengt voor keuringen, herinspecties, systeemtoezicht, certificering, monsterneming en -analyse wijzigen per 1 januari 2018. De tarieven stijgen in 2018 met gemiddeld 2,3%. Omdat sommige tarieven stijgen en andere tarieven dalen kunnen de gevolgen voor de individuele bedrijven verschillen.

De tarieven van de NVWA worden vastgesteld door het ministerie van Landbouw, Natuur en Voedselkwaliteit (LNV) en het ministerie van Volksgezondheid, Welzijn en Sport (VWS). Alle nieuwe tarieven worden 13 december 2017 in de Staatscourant gepubliceerd.

Doorberekenen van kosten

De NVWA wordt voor ongeveer 70% betaald door het ministerie van LNV en het ministerie van VWS. De overige 30% zijn kosten voor keuringen en herinspecties bij bedrijven. Deze kosten worden via retributies bij het bedrijfsleven in rekening gebracht. Het uitgangspunt hierbij is dat de tarieven kostendekkend moeten zijn. De tarieven van de NVWA worden daarom jaarlijks aangepast aan de stijgende lonen en prijzen. Andere oorzaken voor de stijging van de tarieven zijn het op verzoek van het bedrijfsleven inrichten van een extra keurpunt in de haven van Rotterdam, het feit dat export groeit en dat landen buiten de EU steeds meer eisen stellen aan geïmporteerde producten. Dit betekent dat de NVWA meer werk moet verrichten om het bedrijfsleven in staat te stellen te exporteren naar deze derde landen.

Als alle kostenstijgingen in rekening gebracht zouden worden, zouden de tarieven met gemiddeld 4,1% stijgen. De ministeries van LNV en VWS hebben echter besloten om voor het jaar 2018 een deel van de prijsstijging voor rekening van de overheid te laten. Daarom stijgen de tarieven dit jaar met gemiddeld 2,3%.

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Squeeze on UK household finances eases slightly in December, but inflation expectations rise to highest since February 2014

December data revealed a sustained squeeze on UK household finances, driven by another sharp rise in living costs and corresponding decline in cash available to spend. Fragile consumer finances resulted in increased demand for unsecured credit and a steep reduction in households’ appetite for major purchases at the end of the year.

However, there were further signs that pressures on budgets have eased since the summer, with the seasonally adjusted Household Finance Index (HFI) edging up to 43.9 in December, from 43.5 in November. The latest reading was comfortably above the three-year low seen in July (41.8) and signalled the least marked deterioration in financial wellbeing since December 2016.

There were signs that resilient labour market conditions had helped to moderate the squeeze on household budgets. Latest data showed a marginal upturn in income from employment and the fastest rise in workplace activity since August.

Sharply rising living costs nonetheless continued to weigh on financial wellbeing at the end of 2017.

Moreover, inflation expectations have increased since this summer, with forecasts of rising living costs now the most widespread since February 2014.

Expectations for finances in the next 12 months

Households continue to anticipate worsening finances over the next 12 months. However, the seasonally adjusted index picked up to 48.2 in December, from 46.9 in November, to signal that the degree of pessimism was only modest and well above the low point seen in June (45.9).

The main demographic to diverge from the overall trend were people in the oldest age bracket (55-64 years), with this category reporting the most downbeat financial outlook for four-and-a-half years.

Workplace activity and job security

The latest survey data painted a relatively upbeat picture of labour market trends, with workplace activity rising at the fastest pace since August and concerns about job insecurity the least widespread for three months. Income from employment also picked up in December, albeit only marginally.

House price sentiment and outlook for 2018

UK house price sentiment remained inside positive territory during December, but the index eased to a six month low and was among the weakest seen since the summer of 2016.

At 60.8 in December, the Future House Price Sentiment Index was down from 61.7 in November and the lowest since August 2016.

Around 35% of households anticipate a rise in their property value over the course of 2018, while only 13% foresee a reduction.

Tim Moore, Associate Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said:

“There is little doubt that 2017 has been a year to forget for UK financial wellbeing, with sharply rising living costs leading to stretched budgets, lower household saving and greater demand for unsecured credit. UK households also appear braced for a sustained increase in living costs through 2018, with inflation expectations close to a four-year peak in December.

“However, the latest survey reveals a ray of light at the end of the tunnel for UK household finances, with slightly increased earnings starting to help alleviate some of the squeeze on budgets at the end of 2017. The prospect of increased income from employment seems to have lifted households’ financial expectations for next year, with this index among the least pessimistic since the summer of 2016.

“The main area of subdued sentiment was in terms of house price expectations, with optimism the lowest since August 2016. At the same time, almost three quarters of UK households expect another Bank rate rise by the end of next year.”

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Statoil acquires 25% of the Roncador field in Brazil and advances its strategic partnership with Petrobras to increase recovery

Statoil ASA (OSE:STL, NYSE:STO) and Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (“Petrobras”) (BVMF: PETR4, NYSE:PBR) have agreed that Statoil will acquire a 25% interest in Roncador, a large oil field in the Campos Basin in Brazil. The transaction nearly triples Statoil’s production in Brazil, with attractive break-evens and potential for additional value creation for both parties through the application of Statoil’s expertise in improved oil recovery (IOR). The total consideration comprises an initial payment of USD 2.35 billion, plus additional contingent payments of up to USD 550 million.

“This transaction adds material and attractive long-term production to our international portfolio, further strengthening the position of Brazil as a core area for Statoil. We are also pleased to advance our strategic partnership with Petrobras by expanding our technical collaboration, sharing technology, competence and experience to increase oil and gas recovery,” says Eldar Sætre, president and chief executive officer of Statoil.

"Strategic partnerships are an important part of our business plan and Statoil's knowledge and experience in increasing the level of oil recovery in mature fields will add value not only to our joint operations in Roncador, but to other mature fields in the Campos Basin, with huge potential to positively impact future production in the area," says Pedro Parente, chief executive officer of Petrobras.

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Rabobank Visie op 2018: Geopolitieke risico’s dreiging voor ondernemers en economische herstel

Het gaat goed met de Nederlandse economie, maar de internationale risico’s zijn niet gering. Voor Nederlandse ondernemers en beleggers die zaken doen in een aantal geopolitieke risicogebieden moet de dreiging die hier vanuit kan gaan niet op voorhand worden onderschat. Zo zal een onverhoopte ‘harde’ Brexit hen hard kunnen raken. Ook geopolitieke spanningen tussen bijvoorbeeld Saoedi-Arabië en Iran, en ontwikkelingen in Azië rondom Noord-Korea en de Zuid-Chinese Zee zorgen voor risico’s voor ondernemers, beleggers en de totale economie. Dat schrijven economen van Rabobank in hun vandaag verschenen Visie op 2018.

Nederland is vervlochten met de wereldeconomie en heeft grote financiële belangen in regio’s met geopolitieke spanningen. Hoofdeconoom Nederland van Rabobank, Menno Middeldorp: “Een escalatie van de spanningen tussen Saoedi-Arabië en Iran zou kunnen leiden tot een flink hogere olieprijs, met als gevolg een 3 procent lager bbp eind 2020 ten opzichte van onze huidige ramingen. En de uitstaande Nederlandse directe investeringen en beleggingen in Zuidoost-Azië hebben een waarde van tenminste 140 miljard dollar. In deze voor Nederland economisch belangrijke regio bestaan geopolitieke spanningen tussen China en buurlanden over de controle van de Zuid-Chinese Zee. De impact van een daadwerkelijke geopolitieke gebeurtenis kan dus fors zijn. Sterker nog, uit de economische theorie blijkt dat zelfs het risico van een eventuele gebeurtenis de groei kan belemmeren. Zo hebben wij becijferd dat de huidige sterke economische groei nog eens 0,5 procent hoger had kunnen liggen zonder de recente geopolitieke zorgen.”

Nederland crisis eindelijk te boven

Na jaren van inhaalgroei is de Nederlandse economie de crisis desondanks nu eindelijk echt te boven. Ons bbp zal in 2018 met 2,8 procent groeien en in 2019 met 2,2 procent. Daarmee ligt de groei in Nederland hoger dan het gemiddelde van de eurozone. De huishoudconsumptie draagt sterk bij aan de groei en ook de exportbijdrage blijft op peil. De werkloosheid zal in 2019 uitkomen op slechts 3,8 procent dankzij de meer dan een half miljoen banen die zijn gecreëerd sinds 2014. De extra overheidsbestedingen uit het regeerakkoord stuwen de economische groei verder omhoog. Middeldorp: “De vraag is of de economie dit nu nodig heeft. We gaan een fase van hoogconjunctuur in, waarbij de economische groei al hoger is dan de potentiële groei op lange termijn. Nu de overheid de economie nog verder aanjaagt, wordt de toch al volatiele conjunctuurcyclus in ons land alleen maar verder versterkt.”

Wereldeconomie blijft in hoge versnelling; eurozone doet het precies goed

De Rabobank-economen verwachten dat de mondiale economie in 2018 met 3,8 procent zal groeien en in 2019 met 3,7 procent. De ontwikkelde en de opkomende economieën dragen deze groei samen. De vertrouwensindicatoren staan op een hoog niveau en in de meeste landen daalt de werkloosheid sterk. Desondanks blijven grote loonstijgingen veelal uit. De economie van de eurozone groeit in 2018 met 2,2 procent en in 2019 met 1,8 procent. Omdat de inflatie voorlopig nog onder de doelstelling van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) ligt, blijft de rente nog lang laag.

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Arcadis, Arup & WSP join Cross Yarra Partnership to deliver the Metro Tunnel Project

Arcadis (EURONEXT: ARCAD), the leading global design and consultancy firm for natural and built assets, today announced that Cross Yarra Partnership has signed a contract with Melbourne Metro Rail Authority to finance, design, construct and maintain the Tunnel and Stations Package for approximately 25 years as part of the Metro Tunnel Project.

The Metro Tunnel will be Victoria's biggest ever public transport project and Cross Yarra Partnership will deliver twin nine-kilometer tunnels and five new underground stations at North Melbourne (Arden), Parkville, State Library, Town Hall and Anzac.

Cross Yarra Partnership is a consortium of Lendlease, John Holland, Bouygues Construction and Capella Capital.

The Cross Yarra Partnership Design Joint Venture (Arcadis, Arup & WSP) are pleased and excited that their team, Cross Yarra Partnership, has been awarded the Tunnels and Stations PPP contract. We look forward to developing and implementing the innovative proposals that were the backbone of our bid, which we believe will deliver the world class transport system that matches Melbourne's aspirations for its future.

Cross Yarra Partnership was announced as the preferred tenderer for the $6 billion Tunnel and Stations Public Private Partnership in July 2017.

The Design Joint Venture mobilized the best international talent from their partner companies, bringing experience from metros in Hong Kong, Singapore and London's Crossrail to the bid team, with a wide range of specialist skill-sets from dynamic modelling of passenger movement to noise and vibration analysis as well as traditional engineering skills. This team is now being re-mobilized to deliver the detailed designs.

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Thales and Gemalto create a world leader in digital security

€51 offer price, representing a premium of 57% over the closing price as of 8 December 2017

All-cash offer unanimously recommended by Gemalto’s Board of Directors and unanimously approved by Thales’s Board of Directors

Creation of a global market leader in the fast-growing digital security market, supporting the most demanding clients in their digital transformation

Thales to combine its digital assets with Gemalto, within a new Global Business Unit

Thales (Euronext Paris: HO) and Gemalto (Euronext Amsterdam and Paris: GTO) announce today that they have reached an agreement (the “Merger Agreement”) on a recommended all-cash offer for all issued and outstanding ordinary shares of Gemalto, for a price of €51 per share cum dividend.

Patrice Caine, Thales’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, commented: “The acquisition of Gemalto marks a key milestone in the implementation of Thales’s strategy. Together with Gemalto’s management, we have big ambitions based on a shared vision of the digital transformation of our industries and customers. Our project will be beneficial to innovation and employment, whilst respecting sovereign strategic technologies. We have a tremendous respect for Gemalto’s technological achievements, and our two Groups share the same culture and DNA. I would like to personally thank Gemalto’s management and Board of Directors for their unanimous support and I welcome warmly Gemalto’s 15,000 employees to our Group. By combining our talents, Thales and Gemalto are creating a global leader in digital security. ”

Philippe Vallée, Gemalto’s Chief Executive Officer, added: “I am convinced that the combination with Thales is the best and the most promising option for Gemalto and the most positive outcome for our Company, employees, clients, shareholders and other stakeholders. We share the same values and Gemalto will be able to pursue its strategy, accelerate its development and deliver its digital security vision, as part of Thales.”

Alex Mandl, Chairman of Gemalto’s Board of Directors, stated: “The Board of Directors, after full and careful review, together with its financial and legal advisors, of the various options available to the Company, has established unanimously that the Thales offer is in the best interests of Gemalto and all its stakeholders. As a result, the Gemalto Board of Directors unanimously recommends the Thales offer to its shareholders.”

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